Robert K. Colwell (1,2,3,4) and Thiago F. Rangel (2)
1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, 75 North Eagleville Rd., Storrs, CT, 06269-‐3043 USA:
2 Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-‐970, Goiânia, GO, Brasil. TFR: email@example.com.
3 Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-‐2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
4 University of Colorado Museum of Natural History, Boulder, Colorado 80309, USA
The potential for geographical range shifts in the face of changing climate is not only critical for species survival, but also impacts human nutrition, health, and livelihoods. Ecological processes that contribute to range shifts often depend upon previously unexpressed genetic potential, which, in turn, depends upon past climates and past demographic events. Using a realistic spatial template and a modeled palaeoclimate time series for South America, we built a spatially and temporally explicit model for the ecology and evolution of species ranges on broad spatial and temporal scales. The model simulates niche evolution, speciation, extinction, and phylogenesis, as well as dispersal and interspecific competition. We report on preliminary results from this ongoing project.